westhamlet.com

home of the headless angel

February 9th, 2010

Businesses needs customers and customers have to have work. Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labor in Clinton’s first term, says government has to prime the pump. His suggestion is a second stimulus package aimed at states and locales.  Local governments especially need the boost because many are laying off people and are raising taxes and fees at the same time. The raise in taxes isn’t popular and the lay-offs aren’t usually making local government more efficient because several offices in local government are understaffed to begin with.

The President hasn’t proposed anything to boost overall demand. Reich wrote that The President needs to get the second stimulus going and explain why.

February 8th, 2010

The U.S. is still bleeding jobs which isn’t going to turn things around soon. The deep recession is still here as major employers scramble to take a serious look at their employee numbers.  Four million jobs have been lost and another two million could be gone before this is all over. Employment COULD hit 10%.

Economic growth numbers for Q4 of 2009 went way up. However inventory reductions are still underway by major corporations. The GDP growth number to watch for 2010 is 3.6%, as the “growth baton” will be passed from the government stimulus package. The big question is if the U.S. government plan will stimulate the economy as President Obama and the mostly Democrat U.S. House has said it will. Watch for numbers in March. If numbers are improving the 3.6% growth in GDP could happen. But this would be tough if unemployment gets to 8.5% in March.

The stock market took another hit today as the Dow fell below 10,000. Seems Wall Street wants results instead of words. Go figure!

February 7th, 2010

There are three areas of analysis that business intelligence need to be focused on.

  1. Risk modeling to determine value-at-risk.
  2. Quantitative analytics for modeling investment strategies.
  3. High frequency trading strategies.

Business intelligence is moving forward with more on-the-fly decision making tools. The determination of risk exposures in open trades will give operations a boost. This also enables the better allocation of operational revenues.

First customized real-time data must be available so reaction to changing market dynamics is fast. If  financing organizations is at the apex of the strategy, hedging risk is a must. This means the ability to capture data is vital to success.

February 6th, 2010

President Obama announced a Small Business Lending Fund which was based on a transfer of 30 billion dollars for TART funds. The program is targeted for small banks. The banks generally have less than 10 billion dollars in assets and offer about half of the nation’s small business loans. Obama wants the lending start very soon.

February 5th, 2010

Advanced Trading magazine featured an article in their January/February 2010 issue which made me take notice. They asked several traders their predictions for 2010.

Here are some highlights:

Kevin Chapman of Nicholas-Applegate Capital Management said evaluations are coming and this will result in consolidation of technology. Simpler is better.

Ray Fernandez from Olympian Capital Management said he ses more globalization. Watch for more multicurrency systems for firms to watch their foreign exchange exposures.

Erik Karpman of Trading Strategy Group says technological improvements will result in more custom global algorithms.Modification of algorithms with global access, on the fly.

These potential developments, if realized, will have a major impact on the markets and trading. Positives are foreseen in the future. Perspectives like these will hopefully keep you even with the rest of the field.