oil under pressure
The nearby contract for light sweet crude fell under $70 per barrel and remains under pressure. The higher dollar put oil under a cloud, however U.S. economic news helped stem the selling.
August 19, 2009
August 01, 2009
lower gdp number hits dollar
The U.S. government lowered the estimated decline in Q2 GDP and that news hit the dollar hard. The pound still had support on its own, and with the GDP news, the big gainer was GBP/USD, which exhibited a breakout rally. A stronger risk appetite helped the EUR/USD too.
Signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy are here as most traders sighted higher crude prices and a higher Canadian Dollar as signals good for the U.S. economy.
July 31, 2009
the standard formula
Strong oil prices, strong stock prices and a weak dollar. Trend following to be sure. Will this continue? Well if my crystal ball was available. But one must note that the longer these trends drift away from the fundamentals, the more likely they will continue. That's because of capital flow and that is usually trend following.
As far as oil.... much supply and little demand. Oil companies have reported lower earnings and global demand looks to remain without recovery for the time-being. The dollar is lower taking beack gains garnered earlier in the week. And stocks....well that's your homework assignment for most of the rest of the calendar year! Do watch though for a stronger dollar on weakening equities and vice versa.
July 28, 2009
speculation?
A report came out that said the price of oil is going up because of speculation, not supply and demand. Alright, fair enough, but this happens all the time in commodities. Just that some speculation is smaller or larger at any given market trading day. But look at the oil situation for just a moment. Oil production is declining around the world. Oil inventories have dropped a bit too. But our gasoline inventories have risen. Is demand down or about the same? I'll let you answer that since I don't really know!
This I do know.... the need for oil is not going away just yet. And with production going down... well, you get the picture. I have read where one trader thinks oil is going down to $20 per barrel and I have read where another trader said get ready for a coreection in crude to about $50 per barrel and ready, set, go to $120 per barrel. Right now I go along with the latter scenario.
July 24, 2009
oil linked to stocks
Oil turned sharply higher yesterday. The rally took prices to a three-week high. September light crude closed at $67.16, up $1.76. Better housing news helped the prices along. Higher global stocks helped too, since this is a signal that energy demand most likely will pick up. The Energy Information Administration reported crude inventories decreased 1.8 million barrels in the week ended July 17.
The dollar fell to an over 7 week low against the euro.
Occidental Petroleum reported their biggest find of oil and gas in Kern County California.
July 21, 2009
energy demand linked to global equities
The higher demand for global equities led to a higher oil price, but oil did back off highs. A weaker dollar also added to oil's demand. The dollar is to be watched as much speculation needs to be proved.
July 20, 2009
dollar down and an oil word
The dollar is on the defensive against most majors as technical entries chimed in to take the bulls to the sideline to await further developments. Risk appetites were increasing and this gave no bullish direction to the dollar. The downhill slide for the dollar was a bit faster than one analyst had thought it would be, but a short-term rally doesn't look forthcoming.
I saw this on the melduke blog: from the Oil Drum: Only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries are still increasing their oil production. The days of cheap oil are over.
July 15, 2009
foreign investment flows back into china
China's currency reserves rose to the world's highest at 2.13 trillion dollars. The main instrument of the reserves is U.S. government debt.
July 07, 2009
china against u.s. climate policy
China plain does not like the U.S. clean energy bill that has provisions for trade penalties against nations that do not have pollution standards. The Chinese have sternly rejected the notion of trade protectionism under the pretext of climate change. China does not seem to want to take the lead on emissions cuts. China is very concerned about the exportation of their goods to the U.S.
With consumer sentiment low and households spending less, the goods that China delivers to the U.S. has been dropping.
June 29, 2009
head for the zone... eurozone
The Eurozone economic sentiment number rose more than expected in June with the economic indicator at 73.3, revised from 70.2 in May. The Eurozone seems to be finding a hold as far as recovery is concerned, but the data doesn't tell anything about the strength of the recovery.
The dollar is still hated and stocks may be ahaed of themselves. Maybe the key to economic recovery in the U.S. is a good, solid recovery in the Eurozone.
June 27, 2009
improved u.s. consumer confidence
The June University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 70.8, up from 68.7 in May. That's the highest since September! U.S. data saw personal income rise 1.4% in May. Americans are saving more. This is hurting China who export so much into the U.S. The consumption pattern change in the U.S. has forced China to get their Asian neighbors to take more of their goods. China is also limiting imports. China frankly needs world demand to rebound or their economy could be in real trouble.
The dollar ended the week mixed and traders see more two-way action ahead. Conditions are hard to read so let's assume that a seesaw market is coming up, especially with the 4th of July holiday in the U.S. upon us next week.
June 16, 2009
iranians keep information stream flowing
The Iranian Government had been intervening to keep information from leaving Iran. Twitter Tweets stopped for a few hours, however Iranians were able to use TwitterFall.com to work around the censorship.
The "main steam" media has been slow to cover the events in Iran and the news from bloggers is important. I have learned that Iranian Army forces are closing in oh Tehran to stop the protesters. This info came from a twitter entry.
There are reports of seven dead.
Reports also in that Iranian soldiers are going house to house.... sources dropping like flies. Cameramen are reported to be leaving their cameras alone, since they don not feel safe using them.
Five dead at Tehran University.
Here are a few things you can do to help twitters in Iran: LINK
June 15, 2009
iranian election protests
New developments from Iran in the after math of the elections is not getting better. Students in Iran have called upon President Obama to intervene, and the President has said he is deeply troubled by the protests. One group of Mir Hossein Mousavi supporters were fired on when they started to surround a government complex.
The government has outlawed any protests after two days of somewhat violent protests.