learn something

Strong oil prices, strong stock prices and a weak dollar. Trend following to be sure. Will this continue? Well if my crystal ball was available. But one must note that the longer these trends drift away from the fundamentals, the more likely they will continue. That's because of capital flow and that is usually trend following. 

As far as oil.... much supply and little demand. Oil companies have reported lower earnings and global demand looks to remain without recovery for the time-being. The dollar is lower taking beack gains garnered earlier in the week. And stocks....well that's your homework assignment for most of the rest of the calendar year! Do watch though for a stronger dollar on weakening equities and vice versa.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 12:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A report came out that said the price of oil is going up because of speculation, not supply and demand. Alright, fair enough, but this happens all the time in commodities. Just that some speculation is smaller or larger at any given market trading day. But look at the oil situation for just a moment. Oil production is declining around the world. Oil inventories have dropped a bit too. But our gasoline inventories have risen. Is demand down or about the same? I'll let you answer that since I don't really know!

This I do know.... the need for oil is not going away just yet. And with production going down... well, you get the picture. I have read where one trader thinks oil is going down to $20 per barrel and I have read where another trader said get ready for a coreection in crude to about $50 per barrel and ready, set, go to $120 per barrel. Right now I go along with the latter scenario.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The dollar was weaker against a spectrum of currencies as traders speculate that global economic recovery is on target. The demand for safe-haven assets is waning. European equities found support which helped the pound.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 06:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Oil turned sharply higher yesterday. The rally took prices to a three-week high. September light crude closed at $67.16, up $1.76. Better housing news helped the prices along. Higher global stocks helped too, since this is a signal that energy demand most likely will pick up. The Energy Information Administration reported crude inventories decreased 1.8 million barrels in the week ended July 17.

The dollar fell to an over 7 week low against the euro. 

Occidental Petroleum reported their biggest find of oil and gas in Kern County California.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 07:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by mikebertelsen at 07:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by mikebertelsen at 06:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by mikebertelsen at 06:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by mikebertelsen at 02:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The dollar is on the defensive against most majors as technical entries chimed in to take the bulls to the sideline to await further developments. Risk appetites were increasing and this gave no bullish direction to the dollar. The downhill slide for the dollar was a bit faster than one analyst had thought it would be, but a short-term rally doesn't look forthcoming.

I saw this on the melduke blog: from the Oil Drum: Only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries are still increasing their oil production. The days of cheap oil are over. 

Posted by mikebertelsen at 11:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Crude had a third straight daily gain to end the week. The U.S. Department of Energy reduced oil inventories by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. Gasoline inventories were up by 1.5 million barrels. For the week August crude closed up $3.70, the first weekly gain in five.

The U.S. dollar struggled and gave back gains to the euro and sterling. Equities advanced around the world. Economic news from th U.S. was a mixed bag. 

Posted by mikebertelsen at 09:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

China's currency reserves rose to the world's highest at 2.13 trillion dollars. The main instrument of the reserves is U.S. government debt.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 11:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The yen has been gaining as traders have been losing risk appetite. This will be bearish for the dollar as it has been unable to hold onto recent gains. Troubled economic news in the U.S. has placed the dollar in a corner. Stronger commodities will continue to put pressure on the dollar.

Oil has been getting hit as of late since a double top of $73.38 has been confirmed and the "sell rallies" notion is being heard loud and clear. Total petroleum inventories rose to a level not seen since 1990.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 12:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

U.S. jobless claims fell below 600,000, the first time that figure has been realized since January. This brought better demand for higher-yielding assets. The dollar and yen fell pretty much across the board as traders took on more risk.

The pound rallied due to forecast growth in the U.K. economy.

The 10-year treasury note auction went very well.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 07:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

China plain does not like the U.S. clean energy bill that has provisions for trade penalties against nations that do not have pollution standards. The Chinese have sternly rejected the notion of trade protectionism under the pretext of climate change. China does not seem to want to take the lead on emissions cuts. China is very concerned about the exportation of their goods to the U.S.

With consumer sentiment low and households spending less, the goods that China delivers to the U.S. has been dropping. 

Posted by mikebertelsen at 03:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The dollar gained late last week but the gains couldn't be sustained as U.S. equities need a stronger buying volume. The yen was stronger across the board.

Watch crude fundamentals as rallies have been sold. Crude supplies are reported up.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 07:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The dollar dropped on the 1st of July as a rise in global stocks in Europe and China downsized dollar demand. U.S. manufacturing shrank in June but at a slower pace during the prior month. Traders noted that a further drop in the dollar is likely. The British pound is also under pressure.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 06:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

According to a new poll by CNN, Americans think Obama's health care reform package will cost too much. 51% polled said they favor the President's plan to 45% against. Two-thirds believe that they could still see the same doctors with Obama's plan.

Posted by mikebertelsen at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)